Nber recession dating

29-Nov-2014 13:40 by 5 Comments

Nber recession dating - Video sexcxxx

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) sets the official dates for the beginning and end of recessions.

One of the major indicators that the group follows is consistent with an economic recovery.One is unimpressive, but not strongly at odds with a recovery.The two remaining indicators imply that the economy may still be in recession.This divergence has led committee members to express different views of where the economy is in the business cycle.Following the November employment report (but before last week's disappointing job loss) Robert Hall, who currently heads the Business Cycle Dating Committee, said that the report "makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around December.The trough in output was probably sometime in the summer.

The committee will need to balance the mid-year date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.

Earlier this month Martin Feldstein, the former president of the NBER, focusing on the job market, said that the current downturn is likely to last much longer than previous downturns ... If we take a look at the primary components of the economy that the NBER tracks to determine periods of recession, this uncertainty about the end of the recession becomes understandable.

The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.

The four primary indicators that the group tracks are: Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, and Nonfarm Payrolls.

The graphs below show how each of these measures perform around the end of a recession, along with recent performance.

The blue line is an average of the performance in each measure, beginning with the 1953 recession (where the data is available).